The approved 2026 state budget projects that Saudi Arabia's real GDP will grow by about 4.6% next year, up from an estimated 4.4% in 2025, with non-oil activities identified as the main engine behind the expansion.
total government spending is estimated at around SAR 1.313 trillion, while total revenues are projected at about SAR 1.147 to 1.15 trillion, implying a fiscal deficit of roughly 3.3% of GDP. The medium-term outlook attached to the budget shows growth rates of 2.0% in 2024, 4.4% in 2025, 4.6% in 2026, 3.7% in 2027, and 4.5% in 2028.
The budget narrative links the 2026 outlook directly to continued economic diversification and investment-led growth under رؤية السعودية 2030, treating non-oil GDP as the primary driver of overall performance.
Why it matters
For residents and businesses, stronger non-oil growth signals ongoing expansion in sectors such as services, tourism, and investment — areas that shape jobs and opportunities across الرياض, جدة, and beyond.
Recent data offer a more measured picture. Real GDP grew about 3.0% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, with non-oil activities rising around 2.9%, indicating steady but moderate expansion relative to the budget's stronger assumptions. Some external forecasts also differ, ranging between 3% and 4.5%, while at least one prominent estimate anticipates a small contraction of around -0.9% in 2026 due to lower oil activity.
The 4.6% figure is an official forecast for the fiscal year rather than a fixed target, and it may be revised as new quarterly data become available. It is a macroeconomic projection and does not introduce or change any user fees or government service procedures.
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