Saudi 2026 Outlook Stays Positive Despite Pressures

Saudi Arabia's economic outlook for 2026 remains positive, though it has softened compared with earlier forecasts, as lower oil-sector activity and disruptions to maritime shipping and regional supply chains weigh on growth. Non-oil activity continues to lead the expansion, supported by domestic demand, diversification programs, tourism, and logistics.

Projections for 2026 vary widely. The Ministry of Finance's initial estimate placed real GDP growth at 4.6%, led by non-oil activities. Later estimates ranged from a contraction of 3.6% to growth of 1.7%, with non-oil activity expanding between 2.6% and 3.2%, reflecting disrupted maritime trade and lower oil exports.

On the fiscal side, projected FY2026 expenditure stands at SAR 1.313 trillion against revenue of SAR 1.147 trillion, leaving a budget deficit of SAR 165 billion, or roughly 3.3% of GDP. The Kingdom's goods-trade surplus reached SAR 154.7 billion in the first half of 2026, up 53.2% year on year. Inflation is projected at around 2.1% to 2.2%.

Why it matters

For residents and businesses, steady non-oil growth and contained inflation point to continued economic stability, even as external pressures build. Authorities have moved to reroute shipments and ease logistics bottlenecks caused by maritime disruptions. The main risks ahead include lower oil production or exports, higher shipping and insurance costs, regional geopolitical tensions, and persistent supply-chain interruptions.

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