Saudi Non-Oil Growth Lifts 2026 GDP Outlook

Saudi Arabia is heading into 2026 with an upgraded growth outlook, as expanding non-oil activity and stronger logistics capacity drive economic diversification under رؤية السعودية 2030. Real GDP growth for the year is officially projected at about 4.6%, with non-oil activities expected to expand around 5.0% and act as the main engine of the economy.

The Kingdom has also raised its longer-term non-oil growth forecast to around 6.2% by 2026, up from earlier estimates near 5%, reflecting stronger momentum across key sectors. Non-oil activity now accounts for roughly 55% of GDP, powered by tourism, construction, logistics, entertainment, technology, manufacturing, real estate, retail, and advanced services.

Logistics leads the push

Fiscal planning for 2026 prioritizes public investment in industry, logistics, AI infrastructure, energy transition, urban regeneration, and industrial self-sufficiency. The approved 2026 budget forecasts a fiscal deficit while shifting spending toward industry and logistics to grow non-oil revenue.

The Saudi freight and logistics market is projected to grow at a compound annual rate of about 6–7%, reaching roughly USD 32–39 billion by 2026. Budget projects include an integrated network of sorting centers across regions such as Hail, Makkah, and Asir to cut processing and delivery times, plus the activation of two logistics centers in Al-Qunfudhah and Yanbu, raising the number of active centers to 26 across about 600,000 square metres of infrastructure.

Priority sectors for joint ventures and wider investment include chemicals, information technology, transport and logistics, healthcare and life sciences, real estate, education, tourism, entertainment, manufacturing, mining and metals, and renewable energy. For residents and businesses, the shift points to more jobs, faster deliveries, and a wider services economy, though market estimates for total GDP growth still range between roughly 1.7% and 4.6% depending on oil output and global conditions.

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