Above-Average Rain Forecast Across Saudi Arabia in October

Most regions of Saudi Arabia are expected to see above-average rainfall during October 2026, October and November. October is identified as the peak of the rainy season, with the probability of above-normal rainfall in most areas ranging roughly between 40% and 80%.

The forecast covers a wide stretch of the Kingdom, including Riyadh, Makkah, Madinah, Asir, Al-Baha, Jazan, Najran, Qassim, Hail, the Eastern Province, Al-Jouf, Tabuk, and the Northern Borders. Rain chances and expected amounts vary from one region to another. Parts of the Eastern Province and Najran are forecast to see rainfall close to their usual climatic averages rather than above them.

Rainfall during the month is described as heavy to very heavy, and in some areas it may reach torrential or extremely heavy levels — particularly across western and southwestern regions. Climate indicators, including the El Niño–Southern Oscillation phase, are assessed as raising the likelihood of enhanced rainfall and flooding risk in western Saudi Arabia during autumn, especially in October.

Alongside the wetter conditions, surface air temperatures are expected to run above their normal climatic averages across all regions, with anomalies reaching up to about 3°C in some areas. The increased chances of rain in October are also likely to extend into November, keeping rain opportunities open over many parts of the Kingdom.

Why it matters

For residents in Riyadh, Jeddah and other cities, the outlook is a useful reminder to plan ahead for wet weather, possible flooding in low-lying and valley areas, and disrupted travel during heavy downpours. The public seasonal climate outlook is made available through official meteorological channels, and no paid subscription is required to access it.

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