Saudi Non-Oil Growth Drives 4.4% GDP Rise in 2025

Saudi Arabia's economy is projected to grow by about 4.4% in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026, with the expansion driven mainly by non-oil activities across trade, finance, manufacturing and other sectors. Non-oil real GDP growth for 2025 is forecast in a range of roughly 3.4% to 4.6%.

The structural shift toward diversification is now clear in the numbers. By 2025, non-oil activities account for around 55–56% of the Kingdom's GDP, up from about 45–47% in 2016. The private sector's share of GDP has also risen to roughly 51% in 2025, compared with around 40% in 2016, reflecting privatization and diversification under رؤية السعودية 2030.

Non-oil government revenue tells a similar story, climbing from about SAR 163 billion in 2016 to roughly SAR 450–472 billion in 2024. This growth has been driven mainly by VAT, excise taxes, fees, and returns on government investments. The standard VAT rate remains 15% into 2026, with no publicly implemented cuts, keeping it a central pillar of non-oil income.

The Kingdom's nominal GDP now stands at around USD 1.3–1.4 trillion. Budget figures for 2024–2025 point to a fiscal deficit of roughly 4–5% of GDP, as lower oil revenues combine with high capital spending on megaprojects. Independent estimates place the 2025 deficit at around SAR 180–245 billion, wider than the initially budgeted figure of about SAR 100 billion. Oil still supplied about 60–62% of total revenue in 2024.

For residents and businesses, the trend matters because a broader, more diversified economy means more private-sector jobs, wider commercial opportunities, and steadier long-term growth. Vision 2030 monitoring in 2025 reports that around 93% of key performance indicators are fully or partially on track, with non-oil growth expected to continue in 2026, albeit at a slightly slower pace.

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