Moody's Affirms Saudi Arabia at Aa3, Stable Outlook

Saudi Arabia's long-term sovereign credit rating has been affirmed at Aa3 with a stable outlook as of May 2026, keeping the Kingdom firmly within the high investment-grade category. The rating sits at the fourth-highest notch on the global scale.

The affirmation maintains the upgrade first granted in November 2024, when the Kingdom was raised from A1 to Aa3. A stable outlook signals that no rating change is expected in the near term, typically over a one- to two-year horizon, with risks viewed as broadly balanced.

What supports the rating

The assessment reflects Saudi Arabia's large, high-income economy, its vast hydrocarbon resources, and a strong position in global energy markets. It also points to ongoing رؤية السعودية 2030 reforms, including economic diversification, non-oil sector growth, and structural changes that improve institutional and policy effectiveness.

Strong fiscal buffers, including large foreign exchange reserves and sovereign wealth assets, underpin the Kingdom's fiscal resilience. The rating also factors in resilience to regional geopolitical risks and possible trade-route disruptions, supported by the flexibility to route oil exports through the East–West pipeline and Red Sea terminals.

Baseline expectations include non-hydrocarbon private-sector real GDP growth of around 4–5% once regional disruptions subside, and a government debt-to-GDP ratio in the low-30% range in the near term, rising only moderately over the medium term.

Why it matters

The rating places Saudi Arabia solidly in investment-grade territory across all three major agencies, alongside A+ with stable outlook assessments elsewhere. Several large state-linked entities, including the Public Investment Fund and major government-related corporates, carry parallel Aa3/stable ratings reflecting close ties to the sovereign. There are no government fees, portals, or citizen-facing procedures tied to the sovereign rating itself.

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