Riyad Capital Sees Solid Non-Oil Growth in 2026

Recent projections point to continued strength in Saudi Arabia's non-oil economy, with real GDP growth expected to reach around 4.3–4.4% in 2026, supported by high public spending on infrastructure and projects tied to رؤية السعودية 2030.

non-oil activities are set to grow by roughly 4.3–5.0% next year, underpinned by a growth-oriented fiscal policy, investment led by the Public Investment Fund (PIF), and continued capital spending on major projects across the Kingdom.

For the first quarter of 2026, non-oil real GDP growth was reported at about 2.9% year-on-year. This increase has been linked directly to ongoing رؤية السعودية 2030 realization programs, regional and sectoral strategies, and the Kingdom's large-scale developments.

Giga-projects driving diversification

The forecasts describe solid non-oil growth exceeding roughly 4% per year over 2024–2026. Much of this momentum comes from large infrastructure works and giga-projects such as نيوم and its flagship developments, الدرعية, البحر الأحمر, and القدية, alongside Jeddah Central. These schemes absorb hundreds of billions of ريال سعودي in construction spending each year, generating non-oil output through construction and related services.

Analysts highlight non-oil sectors — particularly construction and tourism — as the main engine of economic diversification, delivering the bulk of new non-oil output. For residents and businesses in الرياض and جدة, sustained public investment signals continued demand for jobs, services, and opportunities across construction, hospitality, and other Vision 2030-linked activities.

The outlook also notes more than one scenario for 2026, with growth outcomes depending on wider economic conditions, though the central expectation remains one of steady, broad-based non-oil expansion.

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