NCM 2026 Outlook: Wet January, Hotter Summer Ahead

The National Center for Meteorology (NCM) has issued its seasonal outlook for 2026, pointing to a wetter-than-usual start to the year followed by a hotter summer across most of the Kingdom. Residents in the northern, eastern, western and central regions can expect above-average rainfall during January.

Enhanced January rain is forecast for Tabuk, Al-Jawf, the Northern Borders, parts of Hail and sections of the Eastern Province, with increased activity also expected across western and central regions, including areas of Makkah and Riyadh. Rainfall in February and March is projected to be around seasonal norms for most areas, while temperatures may run up to 1.5°C above long-term averages, particularly in central, eastern and southern zones.

A hotter summer

The NCM advisory warns that summer 2026 (June–August) will be hotter than normal over most of the Kingdom, with average temperatures above climatic norms in all regions. July and August are expected to be about 1.6°C warmer than normal in Jazan, Al-Baha, Asir and Makkah, alongside a clear drop in rainfall chances, especially in the peak months.

Looking further ahead, residual global weather patterns are expected to keep spring 2026 slightly warmer than average, with above-average rainfall in the Asir highlands during April and May and an extended warm-water period along the Red Sea coast through November.

For families and travelers, the outlook carries practical value. Recent winters brought rare sub-zero temperatures in the Tabuk highlands, and the NCM advises carrying thermal clothing for northern and highland trips through March 2026. During Ramadan 1447, the first two-thirds of the month fall in winter, meaning cooler conditions in northern and central regions, with winter weather projected to ease around 18 Ramadan (7 March 2026).

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